Peter J. Cooper’s Weblog

November 11, 2008

‘Opportunity Dubai’ on the Amazon bestseller lists

Filed under: Dubai Property, Gold & Silver, Media, US Stocks — peterjcooper @ 4:46 pm

Many thanks to all the readers of this blog who have ordered my book from www.amazon.co.uk.
‘Opportunity Dubai’ is presently ranked No.20 in the charts for Entrepreneurship and No.30 in the Biographies and Memoirs section.

It is going to be very interesting to see how it sells in Dubai when the censor has finished reading the book. Nobody has published anything like this in the UK about modern Dubai in recent times.

HSBC has already placed a bulk order for copies which some of its clients will doubtless be receiving for Christmas, and anybody else wishing to do the same should click on the right-hand navigation link ‘Opportunity Dubai’.

The book is intended to be educational and entertaining for anybody wanting to make a financial success of living and working in the UAE. Hopefully even old Dubai hands will find some useful nuggets of information or at least something to provoke their thoughts afresh.

I began my time in Dubai by wading through many self-help guides and there was nothing specifically useful for the UAE. ‘Opportunity Dubai’ may help to fill that gap - and I hope guide many readers in finding their own opportunities in this fascinating city.
Order my book online from this link

November 2, 2008

An apology to Dr Marc Faber

Filed under: Gold & Silver, Media, Oil Prices, US Stocks — peterjcooper @ 3:32 pm

This is the title I have given to a chapter in my new book examining the insights and predictions of arguably the most consistent and cerebral gold bug of the twenty-first century. I hope he will indulge my inadequate analysis.

Dr. Marc Faber, the original Dr. Doom before Professor Roubini was recently accorded this moniker, first highlighted gold stocks as an asset class in his column on www.ameinfo.com in February 2001. At the time it was an incredibly radical call.

He said: ‘today I should like to advocate the purchase of a group of stocks, which has over the last twenty years been the worst under-performer. This group consists of gold mining companies… with a combined market capitalization of only $30 billion… a bargain when you consider… Amazon.com was valued at its peak at $35 billion!’

Golden wisdom

The same article laid out the fundamental reasons for buying gold in 2001: demand ahead of supply; large gold short positions; and historically cheap in relation to the Dow Jones Index. He blamed ‘a concerted effort by the US Treasury, the Fed and a number of banks… through active manipulation’ for the low gold price, and added: ‘Should the gold market rally in earnest, the gigantic short positions could never be covered’.

He was always will ahead of the pack. Even his investment classic ‘Tomorrow’s Gold’ published in December 2002 was a strong allusion to the future he saw for the yellow metal.

Almost five years from his first prediction and Dr. Faber had been proven spectacularly correct. In December 2005 he explained in his AME Info column that the Dow-to-Gold ratio had shifted from 45 in 2000 to 20, that is to say ‘it only takes 20 ounces of gold to buy one Dow Jones Index’.

DJI:Gold

But this still left a great deal of room for the future of gold. Dr. Faber then predicted: ‘I would expect this out-performance to continue for the next few years until ‘gold currency’ holders will be able to buy one Dow Jones with just one ounce of gold’. A year later in October 2006 he wrote: ‘I continue to believe that over the next few years gold and silver will significantly outperform US financial assets… We might even see a nice little crash’.

Dr. Faber remains undaunted by gold’s recent fall from its March top and as recently as in the September edition of ‘The Gloom, Boom & Doom Report’ he reported: ‘Personally I hold gold as an insurance against a total collapse of the financial system and a further eventual depreciation in the purchasing power of all paper monies’.

That might sound a bit hubristic in the face of a strengthening dollar. But then who was the one forecaster in the world to advocate a long dollar strategy earlier this year – to wild derision from many quarters, yes none other than Dr Marc Faber. But will his long-term confidence in the yellow metal be proven correct? Let us just say that following the advice of this sage investor has served me well so far this century.

For an analysis of the many remarkable predictions of Dr. Marc Faber in the 2000s please click on this link to order a copy of my new book ‘Opportunity Dubai’ which also reviews many investment options from a Middle East perspective:
Order my book online from this link

October 26, 2008

The National reports on crashing off-plan real estate sales

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media, Oil Prices, UAE Stocks — peterjcooper @ 2:49 pm


The slump in UAE off-plan property sales is reported in detail by The National newspaper today which appears to have got over the embarrassing mistake on its front-page during Cityscape Dubai when a 16 per cent price increase accidentally turned into a price decline.

This is a bold move by the Abu Dhabi Government owned newspaper as other UAE media have been avoiding reporting on what is now blindingly evident to everybody in the real estate sector: namely that off-plan sales have almost come to a halt, and that second-hand property prices are now in decline.

The Cityscape Dubai 2008 exhibition a couple of weeks ago coincided with the start of this autumn’s global financial crisis and marked an end to the long boom in off-plan sales in the Emirates. Indeed, it is hardly surprising in the circumstances that buyers avoided making a long-term commitment like a property purchase.

Reselling part-paid property

The National also reports that the re-selling of partly-paid, off-plan property is extremely difficult. Again this is to be expected because partly-paid buyers are then responsible for future installment payments, and if house prices are falling they could well end up overpaying.

Meanwhile, secondary property sales are dogged by several factors: prices inflated over the summer months to perhaps over-optimistic levels; the difficulty in obtaining anything more than 65 per cent mortgages; and concerns about the outlook for the global and also local economy with oil prices sliding.

However, agents say the shortage of property in favorite locations should limit the downside in prices for completed property. They say the market is more in a ‘wait-and-see’ rather than a panic mode, as the price levels still indicate confidence among sellers.

Bull points

Factors that could stabilize the market include: government action to provide low-cost mortgage finance; in-coming funds from overseas markets, and a repeat of the flow of funds after 9/11 which funded the first Dubai real estate boom; stock market investors turning to property for high yields; and the lack of alternative investment opportunities in a turbulent period for global financial markets.

But it is hard to see foreign money flowing back into UAE real estate as the revaluation of the US dollar is making property here much more expensive for buyers from the UK, Europe and Russia.

On the other hand, real estate is a traditional hedge against inflation, and economists say a wave of inflation will hit the world within a year as a result of the $4 trillion now committed to bank bailouts.
This will mean higher oil prices, perhaps $150-200 a barrel, and that would be good for the UAE.

Taking advantage of depressed UAE property markets at this time might yet prove a good idea, although completed property, particularly the villas which are in short supply, looks by far the best option. This could be no more than a short bull market correction for UAE property - though that will not stop it being painful and terminal for some off-plan investors.

For more on Dubai real estate buy my new book online from this link

June 2, 2008

Only the UAE is showing higher consumer confidence says MasterCard

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media, UAE Stocks — peterjcooper @ 12:44 pm

Consumer confidence has fallen sharply in Egypt and Lebanon over the past six months, according to the latest MasterCard Index. But confidence was up in the UAE, the only country surveyed to show an increase.

The UAE index score of 85.4 was up on 78.5 six months ago, although survey newcomer Qatar was higher at 88.6 as was Kuwait at 89.4. Saudi Arabia showed a dip from 92.2 to 80.1.

But there was a huge gap between the winners and losers in the Middle East. Confidence plunged from 65.9 to 32.3 in Egypt due to food inflation and the jobs outlook, while politically challenged Lebanon saw its confidence score collapse to 32 against 38.7 previously.

MasterCard regional general manager, Denzil Lawson said he expected Lebanon to rebound quickly on the back of the recent political settlement. In Egypt the outlook was less certain.

The UAE hike in confidence reflected a strong jobs market and improved quality of life, something Mr. Lawson put down to improving traffic, pay rises and a perception that key infrastructure like the Dubai Metro would shortly be finished as well as a booming property market.

Interestingly confidence in local stock markets remains fairly subdued which might counter expectations of a rebound this autumn.
Order my book online from this link

May 28, 2008

Buyers queuing overnight as demand booms for Dubai real estate

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media, Oil Prices, Uncategorized — peterjcooper @ 8:05 am

Negative real interest rates courtesy of a dollar-peg, high oil prices, not a little media attention and still attractive price levels are keeping Dubai real estate booming. It is a total contrast to most global property markets where activity has slowed or is in recession.

New project launches in the right locations sell out quickly. Yesterday Deyaar Developments announced the sell-out of its Mirar Residences, one of three towers in the DuBiotech business park, despite the recent arrest of its top management team for alleged embezzlement.

Not all buyers are so lucky. The National reported this week that ‘hundreds of potential buyers, some of whom had specially flown into the country, were turned away by Nakheel yesterday after the waterfront property they were after sold out.

’Overwhelming interest in Nakheel’s Badrah waterfront developments led to the cancellation of about 400 appointments with potential buyers. Badrah is a district with 45,000 homes, and Nakheel sold about 1,000 apartments on Sunday, the first day of a planned two-day sale, an official said. Another 60 apartments left over from Sunday were released to some customers yesterday, but the remaining hundreds of potential buyers missed out.’

There is indeed considerable competition to buy in favorable locations. Even the 10-kilometre desert hotel strip project Bawadi had people queuing for 14 hours by buy homes in its joint venture with Emaar Properties. The lucky 120 slept overnight to keep their places in the queue, and disappointed people were told to come back for the next phase of sales.

This is almost nostalgic for an early buyer of Dubai property like myself! Five years ago I was one of the thousand buyers who queued at the Godolphin Ballroom at the Emirates Towers to buy a villa in The Meadows. We thought it was madness but property prices have quadrupled since then.

But Dubai property prices remain 25 per cent cheaper than a London suburb with take-home pay levels rather higher and a great many bankers looking to relocate here in the near future. Personally I think prices have higher to go as completed property is in very short supply, and there is plenty of demand to soak up new real estate completions for another year or two.

No boom last forever, but this one is getting hotter this summer! I can’t see the heat subsiding at least until the Burj Dubai, the world’s tallest building is topped out next summer. The illustration above compares this awesome skyscraper to the holder of the tallest building title in Taipei.

May 21, 2008

Reporting on The National: setting new Gulf press standards

Filed under: Media — peterjcooper @ 10:52 am

Dubai supermarkets still do their best to bury The National amid piles of property guides, but the superlative quality of this new newspaper owned by the Abu Dhabi Government can not be denied. It shows up rivals as inferior in their professional standards and frankly very amateur and erratic by comparison. The stage is surely set for a big shake-up.

Let us just flick through today’s edition and look at what The National is getting right. I see proper news standards being applied to stories with reporters following up in depth and quoting original sources rather than lifting press releases off AME Info.

Amazingly for a government paper the WAM story about President Khalifa heading to Saudi Arabia only makes the inside front page, and Prime Minister and Ruler of Dubai Sheikh Mohammed leaving on a state visit to France is not covered. This makes an inside spread on Emirates Business 24/7.

But The National sticks to hard news and avoids soft stories – presumably we will hear if Sheikh Mohammed signs a big deal - and at a time of year when the number of press invitations falls to a trickle, this is no mean feat.

The paper even upbraids the UAE for lack of transparency in its humanitarian aid which UN chief Sir John Holmes said was ‘highly dubious’ at 3.6 per cent of GDP, ‘vastly outweighing anything coming from Western countries’.

There is also an article attacking the Jumeirah Beach Residence in Dubai for only providing two out of seven promised gymnasiums for residents and building a car park for 500 vehicles on a beach park space. One would have to wonder if a Dubai based paper would dare to be so critical of a government project.

It is really a good read, and refreshingly open and transparent in its approach to stories. The commentary on the debate between presidential hopefuls Obama and McCain is highly relevant and its conclusions far less equivocal and ambiguous than Gulf News would dare to go.

You do have to wonder how President Barack Hussein Obama, son of a Muslim father is going to tackle the Middle East should he – as now seems almost inevitable – be in the White House next January. So why not discuss it openly?

I hear that The National is working its highly-paid hacks very hard, and that some have already returned to Dubai for a quieter life. However, the competition is getting as hot as the weather and it could be a case of out of the frying pan and into the fire.

Still it is no bad thing. If the Gulf is going to become a more open and transparent society then it needs TV stations like Al Jazeera and newspapers like The National, although the former could take a lesson from the latter and learn to be a little more critical of its paymaster.

But for any journalist around the world with a passing interest in the Middle East and a commitment to the job this is a great time to get involved. I would just book an air ticket and turn up in the office. There is nothing like getting your foot in the door!

May 17, 2008

Toshi: a new favorite restaurant for Dubai Media City folk

Filed under: Media, Restaurants, Uncategorized — peterjcooper @ 9:09 am

The Grand Millennium Dubai is an awkward hotel to locate being situated on the opposite side of the road to the extension of the Dubai Media City. But the modest effort is well worth it to discover the signature new Toshi Asian fusion restaurant with panoramic views from the 18th floor over the Palm island and Burj Al Arab.

This is the real New Dubai: Ultra chic and modern, luxurious yet comfortable, a genuine multi-cultural fusion. The food is also very good.

You can watch the chefs at work through the glass surrounding the kitchen and see the immaculately clean work surfaces and the finest produce being prepared. The restaurant is well sub-divided with intimate romantic corners for couples, and glass partitioned areas that would suit a corporate dinner.

We dined at night with the passing lights of the Sheikh Zayed Road a constant reminder of dynamic Dubai, and yet this restaurant has a very relaxed ambience in the school of Zen with active water features a reminder of a spa interior, and there is indeed a fine spa on the same floor.

The menu is a little unadventurous but comprehensive in its range of Asian dishes: from sushi to Peking Duck to Malaysian inspired curries. But that transparent kitchen is put to good use in cooking fresh products to perfection. And prices are a good deal lower than in the beach hotels.

The wine list is also sufficient, and a modest bottle of Argentinean chardonnay is not going to cost any more than in London these days.

My strong suspicion is that Toshi is going to become a very busy restaurant with the media and IT glitterati seeing it as an alternative watering hole to the SAS Radisson – which charges similar prices and delivers rather less. The views are excellent day or night, and this is just the venue to take the visiting boss or client that you wish to impress.
Order my book online from this link

May 12, 2008

UAE real estate boom good for local media including The National

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media — peterjcooper @ 9:08 am

Today the Gulf News added a fifth property section to the thud of newsprint that arrives on the door each day in the UAE, and the whole paper was wrapped as usual in a hugely expensive four-page advertisement.

 

Even Abu Dhabi’s new newspaper The National is well placed to pick up on the boom in real estate advertising. This week the Cityscape 2008 show hits the capital amid a blaze of publicity.

 

Meanwhile, my friends at the Emirates Business 24/7 business daily in Dubai are slow in publishing my articles because they are being squeezed out by a surge in advertising, now one third of the newspaper.

 

It is going to be a bumper year for advertising revenues in the UAE, driven almost entirely by the real estate boom. Advertising in other sectors is down marginally due to the impact of inflation on costs for businesses not involved in real estate or real estate finance.

 

As I am not in advertising sales there is an obvious question I can ask: what happens if the real estate boom falters to the media sector? It would not be a pretty picture that is to be sure.

 

But as the other report on this blog today indicates house prices are presently spiraling upwards – 10-15 per cent in the past two months alone – and there does not seem any end in sight for the real estate boom that has gripped Dubai since 2003 and Abu Dhabi for a couple of years.

 

High oil prices, low interest rates and massive domestic inward investment leading to huge population growth – these factors suggest far higher house prices to come - and a lot more advertising for the local media. How long before the Gulf News has a sixth property section?

Dubai house prices up 10-15% in two months

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media, UAE Stocks — peterjcooper @ 8:03 am

If you need any confirmation that inflation is rampant in the Gulf States, just look at spiraling house prices in Dubai where gains of 10-15 per cent have been reported over the past two months alone.

 

Local Dubai newspaper Gulf News has today added a fifth property section, ‘Select Properties’ to add to its existing two sections for freehold sales and two for rental accommodation.

 

The economic tsunami of high oil prices, falling interest rates and record domestic inward investment are sending Dubai real estate prices spiraling upwards. Potential sellers are reluctant to sell in such a powerful market, further restricting supply in a market characterized by the delayed delivery of many new schemes.

 

But the recent leap in prices caught this correspondent unaware over his cornflakes this morning during a perusal of the multiple property sections. You can pick a villa or apartment in almost any location – completed or off-plan – and refer back to the offer price two months ago and see the price hike.

 

Traditionally this is now it for the first half of the year in Dubai with the hot summer months sending potential buyers to cooler climates, and making the physical process of buying a hot and sweaty business with site visits, documents to find and trips to the bank.

 

Will it be different this year? With this kind of momentum in the market I would expect activity will continue at a higher level than normal. Indeed, anybody thinking of buying might be well advised to take advantage of the relative lull from June to the end of August, as another 10-15 per cent price hike looks almost inevitable this autumn.

 

There are those who argue this might be a final price spike for Dubai property but then equally this could just be seen as an end to previously cheap prices in a new global city.

May 5, 2008

Naming the Dubai property scamsters

Filed under: Dubai Property, Media, UAE Stocks — peterjcooper @ 7:45 am

Many thanks for the feedback on my modest scoop in the Emirates Business 24/7 newspaper today about the Real Estate Regulatory Agency investigating the accounts of four developers in Dubai.

 

And thank you for naming the names which may or may not be under due process at the moment. For obvious legal reasons I am not going to get into the business of making unsubstantiated allegations that will cause considerable damage to what may be legitimate operations.

 

My trust is with RERA which seems to be doing a fantastic job in transforming the Wild East of Dubai real estate into a mature property sector. It is going to be a rough ride, perhaps particularly rough for four companies, but CEO Marwan bin Ghalita and his team deserves the support of the sector at this time.

 

Leave it to RERA to sort out the rogue developers. They know who they are and as a Dubai Government agency have the full backing of the authorities. 
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